Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Do you love #volatility yet?  Last week the market swung wildly back on forth on “trade talks,” “tariff relief,” inverted yield curves, and recession fears to finish the week on “hopes” banks will rescue the markets once again. \x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081619.png?itok=qUUYHuae 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081619.png?itok=qUUYHuae 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081619.png?itok=qUUYHuae 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081619.png?itok=qUUYHuae 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081619.png?itok=qUUYHuae 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081619.png?itok=-U9w-ojd 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"e31057c9-fef4-4583-a6e1-f242f3bac35e\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"221\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo19F8/20706597424-0/original.png#20706597424\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>The bounce on Friday, was not unexpected as the market had gotten very oversold on a short-term basis. As shown in the chart below, the bounce off support gives the market a little room to the upside before several levels of resistance kick in. \x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-Chart1-081619.png?itok=FkOgpjog\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-Chart1-081619.png?itok=FkOgpjog\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart1-081619.png?itok=btOdeekl 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart1-081619.png?itok=btOdeekl 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart1-081619.png?itok=btOdeekl 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart1-081619.png?itok=btOdeekl 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart1-081619.png?itok=btOdeekl 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart1-081619.png?itok=FkOgpjog 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"d170af9d-0cc8-4f25-91f1-46022a74b09a\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"453\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo7FDE/20929670273-0/original.png#20929670273\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>This oversold condition is why we took on a leveraged long position on the S&P 500 which we discussed with our \x3cstrong>\x3ca href=\"https://riapro.net/\" target=\"_blank\">RIAPRO subscribers on Thursday morning (30-Day Free Trial).\x3c/a>\x3c/strong>:\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cblockquote>\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>\x3cem>“I added a 2x S&P 500 position to the Long-Short portfolio for an ‘oversold trade’ and a bounce into the end of the week. We will re-evaluate the holding tomorrow.”\x3c/em>\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\x3c/blockquote>\n\n\x3cp>We are holding the position over the weekend, as there is still room in the current advance for further gains. Also, given the President is fearful of a market decline, we expect there will be some announcement over the weekend on \x3cem>“trade relief”\x3c/em> to support the markets.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>However, \x3cstrong>this does NOT negate our commentary from last week suggesting this remains a \x3cem>“sellable rally.”\x3c/em>\x3ca href=\"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/unlocked-special-report-sp-500-plunges-on-yield-curve-inversion/\" target=\"_blank\">To wit:\x3c/a>\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cblockquote>\n\x3cp>\x3cem>“The market is oversold on a short-term basis, and \x3cstrong>a rally from current support back to the 50-dma is quite likely.\x3c/strong>\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cem>Again, \x3cstrong>that rally should be used to reduce risk.\x3c/strong> I wrote about this on Tuesday in \x3ca href=\"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-5-reasons-to-be-bullish-or-not-on-stocks/\" target=\"_blank\">“5-Reasons To Be Bullish (Or Not) On Stocks:”\x3c/a>\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\x3c/blockquote>\n\n\x3cblockquote>\n\x3cp>\x3cem>“For longer-term investors, it is worth considering the historical outcomes of the dynamics behind the financial markets currently. \x3cstrong>The is a huge difference between a short-term bullish prediction and longer-term bearish dynamics. \x3c/strong>As Howard Ruff once stated:\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cem>“It wasn’t raining when Noah built the ark.”\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\x3c/blockquote>\n\n\x3cblockquote>\n\x3cp>\x3cem>Notice that while the market has been rising since early 2018, the momentum indicators are negatively diverging. Historically, such divergences result in markedly lower asset prices. \x3cstrong>In the short-term, the market remains confined to a rising trend which is running along the 200-dma.\x3c/strong> At this juncture, the market has not violated any major support points and does currently warrant a drastically lower exposure to risk. \x3cstrong>However, the “sell signals” combined with negatively diverging indicators, suggest a “reduction” of risk, and hedging, is warranted on any rally.”\x3c/strong>\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\x3c/blockquote>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081519-1024x766.png?itok=IqmwHTpl\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081519-1024x766.png?itok=IqmwHTpl\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081519-1024x766.png?itok=dEK-Q8kF 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081519-1024x766.png?itok=dEK-Q8kF 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081519-1024x766.png?itok=dEK-Q8kF 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081519-1024x766.png?itok=dEK-Q8kF 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081519-1024x766.png?itok=dEK-Q8kF 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart2-081519-1024x766.png?itok=IqmwHTpl 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"772def9c-0d6f-4fe3-ad4c-96397b7fb8de\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"374\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo0161/20152743122-0/original.png#20152743122\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>With sell signals in place, maintaining higher levels of cash, hedging, and holding fixed income continues to provide benefits. \x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>This is particularly the case given the narrowing participation in the broader market. While the S&P 500 is still holding up, that is due to crowding into the largest of market-capitalization-weighted stocks. If you look at the Valueline Geometric Index, there is substantially more damage being done beneath the surface which is supportive of falling yields as money seeks safety. \x3cstrong>The negative divergences continue to suggest a higher level of caution.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-Chart4-081619.png?itok=yxCN9KhF\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-Chart4-081619.png?itok=yxCN9KhF\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart4-081619.png?itok=MtaLzESY 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart4-081619.png?itok=MtaLzESY 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart4-081619.png?itok=MtaLzESY 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart4-081619.png?itok=MtaLzESY 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart4-081619.png?itok=MtaLzESY 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/SP500-Chart4-081619.png?itok=yxCN9KhF 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"c2c7282e-b314-4842-a58a-39417a504228\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"374\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo2D6C/20375815971-0/original.png#20375815971\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>While the market did “bounce” on Friday, the media was quick to suggest it was something more than just a \x3cem>“bounce.”\x3c/em> Here is the WSJ:\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cblockquote>\n\x3cp>\x3cem>“The move came on top of gains on Thursday \x3cstrong>and seemed to reflect a belief that, just maybe, the U.S. economy isn’t in as much trouble as some investors had feared.”\x3c/strong>\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\x3c/blockquote>\n\n\x3cp>Be careful falling into that trap.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>Let’s get into our analysis for this week.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3ch2>\x3cu>\x3cstrong>Listen To The Yield Curve Message\x3c/strong>\x3c/u>\x3c/h2>\n\n\x3cp>On Wednesday, CNBC ran the following headline:\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/Capture-1_1.png?itok=AqR_dINC\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Capture-1_1.png?itok=AqR_dINC\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Capture-1_1.png?itok=pJI1Tr_P 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Capture-1_1.png?itok=pJI1Tr_P 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Capture-1_1.png?itok=pJI1Tr_P 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Capture-1_1.png?itok=pJI1Tr_P 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Capture-1_1.png?itok=pJI1Tr_P 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/Capture-1_1.png?itok=AqR_dINC 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"699e10dc-ea91-4798-adc8-a2bcc52a8825\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"300\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo194F/20598888820-0/original.png#20598888820\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cblockquote>\n\x3cp>\x3cem>“Stocks plunged on Wednesday, giving back Tuesday’s solid gains, \x3cstrong>after the U.S. bond market flashed a troubling signal about the U.S. economy.”\x3c/strong> – CNBC\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\x3c/blockquote>\n\n\x3cp>On Thursday, CNBC runs the following headline:\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/Capture-2_0.png?itok=MXbsWr3r\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Capture-2_0.png?itok=MXbsWr3r\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Capture-2_0.png?itok=LAuhyv0J 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Capture-2_0.png?itok=LAuhyv0J 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Capture-2_0.png?itok=LAuhyv0J 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Capture-2_0.png?itok=LAuhyv0J 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Capture-2_0.png?itok=LAuhyv0J 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/Capture-2_0.png?itok=MXbsWr3r 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"35d7ddf9-e5b6-4be9-8381-1f0bb514b381\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"78\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo7492/20821961669-0/original.png#20821961669\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cblockquote>\n\x3cp>\x3cem>“Economists ratchet up their GDP forecasts for the third quarter to a median 2.1% after a batch of better-than-expected data, according to to the CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update. \x3cstrong>The data paints a picture of an economy that looks nowhere near as bad as recent action in the bond market would suggest, and economists say it’s the strength of the U.S. consumer driving the economy.\x3c/strong>The manufacturing sector does show signs of strain, but the consumer is two-thirds of the economy and it is pulling its weight.”\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\x3c/blockquote>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>So, which message is correct? \x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>Let’s start with the economic data, which is showing a stronger than expected economy. The 6-charts below are the major measures of the economy most viewed by economists.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-1999-081519.png?itok=4QFCn8TX\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-1999-081519.png?itok=4QFCn8TX\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-1999-081519.png?itok=BmuYDx4z 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-1999-081519.png?itok=BmuYDx4z 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-1999-081519.png?itok=BmuYDx4z 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-1999-081519.png?itok=BmuYDx4z 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-1999-081519.png?itok=BmuYDx4z 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-1999-081519.png?itok=4QFCn8TX 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"8b4cd904-a670-4f1a-b8e0-ab80572658bb\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"519\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photoA626/20045034518-0/original.png#20045034518\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>Clearly, there are NO signs of recession currently:\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cul>\n\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>5% annualized real personal income growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>2.6% annualized employment growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>4.8% annualized industrial production growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>11.5% annualized real personal consumption expenditure growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>13.4% annualized growth in real wages\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>4.8% annualized real GDP.\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\x3c/ul>\x3cp>\x3cstrong>Yet, the yield curve is close to inverting.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-1991-2000.png?itok=6_aMYgEQ\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-1991-2000.png?itok=6_aMYgEQ\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-1991-2000.png?itok=-rDuTeK6 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-1991-2000.png?itok=-rDuTeK6 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-1991-2000.png?itok=-rDuTeK6 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-1991-2000.png?itok=-rDuTeK6 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-1991-2000.png?itok=-rDuTeK6 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-1991-2000.png?itok=6_aMYgEQ 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"61f9dba3-174e-4cff-b893-00d35013afb4\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"258\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo9C7C/20268107367-0/original.png#20268107367\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>So, which indicator is right?\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>As an investor, should you be betting on the economic data, or the \x3cem>“yield curve?”\x3c/em> \x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>My apologies, I forgot to add the X-Axis to the charts above. \x3cem>(Not really, it was intentional)\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>That time frame is 1991 though 1999.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>I don’t need to remind you what happened next.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>Now, which indicator would you follow?  The yield curve?\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>How about the stats in \x3cstrong>December 2007?\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cul>\n\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>1.4% annualized real personal income growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>0.8% annualized employment growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>2.2% annualized industrial production growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>4.6% annualized real personal consumption expenditure growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>5.7% annualized growth in real wages\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>2.0% annualized real GDP.\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\x3c/ul>\x3cp>Again, there is clearly no recession in sight, right?\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>Here is the yield curve from 2003-2008\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2003-2007.png?itok=uh27nJE3\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2003-2007.png?itok=uh27nJE3\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2003-2007.png?itok=hzUVXd0o 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2003-2007.png?itok=hzUVXd0o 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2003-2007.png?itok=hzUVXd0o 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2003-2007.png?itok=hzUVXd0o 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2003-2007.png?itok=hzUVXd0o 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2003-2007.png?itok=uh27nJE3 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"5375ea6a-5a61-4d7c-89b2-1085a66a3d29\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"260\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo29C3/20491180216-0/original.png#20491180216\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>So, how about today.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>CNBC says the consumer is strong, and the yield curve is wrong. \x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>Here is the 6-panel chart of the current economic cycle to compare to the chart above.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-2009-Present-081519.png?itok=OdEaRvtI\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-2009-Present-081519.png?itok=OdEaRvtI\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-2009-Present-081519.png?itok=aTLCx6b7 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-2009-Present-081519.png?itok=aTLCx6b7 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-2009-Present-081519.png?itok=aTLCx6b7 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-2009-Present-081519.png?itok=aTLCx6b7 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-2009-Present-081519.png?itok=aTLCx6b7 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/6-Panel-EconomicProsperity-2009-Present-081519.png?itok=OdEaRvtI 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"2ab73af5-c785-421c-b9ed-e988cad4b6dd\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"518\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photoBC18/20714253065-0/original.png#20714253065\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cblockquote>\n\x3cp>\x3cem>(It is worth comparing the markedly weaker economic growth statistics between today and the late 90’s. This goes a long way in explaining the disparity of wealth in the country today and surging debt levels.)\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\x3c/blockquote>\n\n\x3cp>Here are the final stats as of the latest reports:\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cul>\n\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>3.4% annualized real personal income growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>1.5\x3c/em>\x3cem>% annualized employment growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>0.5% annualized industrial production growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>3.8% annualized real personal consumption expenditure growth\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>5.4% annualized growth in real wages\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\t\x3cli>\n\t\x3cp>\x3cem>2.3% annualized real GDP.\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\t\x3c/li>\n\x3c/ul>\x3cp>\x3cstrong>To CNBC’s point, based on this lagging, and currently unrevised, economic data, there is \x3cem>“NO recession in sight,”\x3c/em> so you should be long equities, right?\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>Here is that pesky yield curve again. \x3cem>(2009-Present)\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2009-Present.png?itok=Zu5XSo6i\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2009-Present.png?itok=Zu5XSo6i\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2009-Present.png?itok=ZyFF8mWu 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2009-Present.png?itok=ZyFF8mWu 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2009-Present.png?itok=ZyFF8mWu 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2009-Present.png?itok=ZyFF8mWu 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2009-Present.png?itok=ZyFF8mWu 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/10-2-Yield-Curve-2009-Present.png?itok=Zu5XSo6i 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"1b1ccf1c-13f7-4595-8333-851fbe78fb85\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"256\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photoAEC1/20937325914-0/original.png#20937325914\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>Which indicator should you follow?\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>The yield curve is an easy answer.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>While everybody is \x3cem>“freaking out”\x3c/em> over the \x3cem>“inversion,”\x3c/em> \x3cstrong>it is when the yield-curve \x3cem>“un-inverts”\x3c/em> that is the most important.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>The chart below, shows that when the Fed is aggressively cutting rates, the yield curve un-inverts as the short-end of the curve falls faster than the long-end. \x3cstrong>\x3cem>(This is because money is leaving “risk” to seek the absolute “safety” of money markets, i.e. “market crash.”)\x3c/em>\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/Fed-Rate-Cuts-Yield-Curves-Recessions-081619.png?itok=7TQ8ZKgu\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Fed-Rate-Cuts-Yield-Curves-Recessions-081619.png?itok=7TQ8ZKgu\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Fed-Rate-Cuts-Yield-Curves-Recessions-081619.png?itok=s9JHT56- 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Fed-Rate-Cuts-Yield-Curves-Recessions-081619.png?itok=s9JHT56- 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Fed-Rate-Cuts-Yield-Curves-Recessions-081619.png?itok=s9JHT56- 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Fed-Rate-Cuts-Yield-Curves-Recessions-081619.png?itok=s9JHT56- 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Fed-Rate-Cuts-Yield-Curves-Recessions-081619.png?itok=s9JHT56- 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/Fed-Rate-Cuts-Yield-Curves-Recessions-081619.png?itok=7TQ8ZKgu 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"67f372bf-1be6-4db9-b901-4188682a50f2\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"311\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo5443/20160398763-0/original.png#20160398763\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>As noted above, the current economic data is only a \x3cem>“guess”\x3c/em> about the current economy. In the next 12-months, we will see the\x3cem> “revised”\x3c/em> data, but the yield curve is already telling you it will be weaker.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>Just as in December 2007, there was \x3cem>“no recession.”\x3c/em>\x3c/strong> It wasn’t until December 2008 that the data was revised, and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced the recession had begun a full year earlier in December 2007. \x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>By the time the announcement was made, it did little to help investors avoid the damage. The chart below is the historical track record of recession dating and market turns. \x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/NBER-Recession-Dating-SP500-Index-081519.png?itok=HbIxXOcE\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/NBER-Recession-Dating-SP500-Index-081519.png?itok=HbIxXOcE\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/NBER-Recession-Dating-SP500-Index-081519.png?itok=h0Ek4fGJ 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/NBER-Recession-Dating-SP500-Index-081519.png?itok=h0Ek4fGJ 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/NBER-Recession-Dating-SP500-Index-081519.png?itok=h0Ek4fGJ 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/NBER-Recession-Dating-SP500-Index-081519.png?itok=h0Ek4fGJ 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/NBER-Recession-Dating-SP500-Index-081519.png?itok=h0Ek4fGJ 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/NBER-Recession-Dating-SP500-Index-081519.png?itok=HbIxXOcE 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"0dc0a8ac-14ba-4048-b075-4f42770ec33e\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"328\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo801B/20383471612-0/original.png#20383471612\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>Despite commentary to the contrary, the yield curve is a \x3cem>“leading indicator”\x3c/em> of what is happening in the economy currently, as opposed to economic data which is \x3cem>“lagging”\x3c/em> and subject to massive revisions.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>More importantly, while the consumer may be continuing to support growth currently, such can, and will, change dramatically when job losses begin to occur. Consumers are fickle beasts, and when a change in psychology occurs, it will happen very rapidly.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3ch2>No One Ever Says Sell\x3c/h2>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-often-produces-strongest-returns-after-yield-curve-inverts-jpms-kolanovic-2019-03-26?mod=mw_theo_homepage\" target=\"_blank\">Mark Kolanovic of J.P. Morgan \x3c/a>penned:\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cblockquote>\n\x3cp>\x3cem>“Historically, equity markets tended to produce some of the strongest returns in the months and quarters following an inversion. Only after [around] 30 months does the S&P 500  return drop below average,”\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\x3c/blockquote>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/MW-HG413_JPMinv_20190326135102_NS_0.png?itok=I38okU9B\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/MW-HG413_JPMinv_20190326135102_NS_0.png?itok=I38okU9B\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/MW-HG413_JPMinv_20190326135102_NS_0.png?itok=unAOzExe 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/MW-HG413_JPMinv_20190326135102_NS_0.png?itok=unAOzExe 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/MW-HG413_JPMinv_20190326135102_NS_0.png?itok=unAOzExe 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/MW-HG413_JPMinv_20190326135102_NS_0.png?itok=unAOzExe 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/MW-HG413_JPMinv_20190326135102_NS_0.png?itok=unAOzExe 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/MW-HG413_JPMinv_20190326135102_NS_0.png?itok=I38okU9B 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"aa56d5b0-9f9f-455a-946a-144c7cd66641\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"328\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo5D53/20829617310-0/original.png#20829617310\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>While the statement is not incorrect, it is advice that will ultimately lead to disappointment. \x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>As discussed, in 1998 there was\x3cem> “no recession in sight,\x3c/em>” and investors were repeatedly advised to ignore the yield curve because \x3cem>“this time was different.” \x3c/em>Over the next two years, that advice held true as bullish optimism seemed well-founded. It was in early 2000 that Jim Cramer issued his \x3cem>Top 10-Stock Picks\x3c/em> for the next decade. \x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>The problem was that no one ever said \x3cem>“sell.”\x3c/em> \x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>While gains were made during the period between the initial yield curve inversion and the peak of the market, \x3cstrong>all of those gains, plus much more, were wiped out in the ensuing decline.\x3c/strong> By the time the selling was done, portfolio values had reverted to where they were roughly a decade earlier.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>Since the majority of mainstream financial advice never suggest selling, investors had no clue that if they had gone to cash in 1998, they saved themselves both much grief, and years of losses to recover.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>Following the \x3cem>“Dot.com”\x3c/em> crash, the entire tragic event was considered an anomaly; a \x3cstrong>once-in-a-100-year event\x3c/strong> which would not be replicated anytime again soon. \x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>Unfortunately, just 4-years later, in 2006, investors were once again told to ignore the yield curve inversion as it was a \x3cem>“Goldilocks economy”\x3c/em> and \x3cem>“sub-prime mortgages were contained.”\x3c/em>\x3c/strong> While many of the individuals who had told you to stay invested leading up to 2000 peak were mostly gone from the industry, a whole new crop of media gurus, and advisors, once again told investors to \x3cem>“ignore the yield curve.”\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>For a second time, had investors just sold when the yield curve inverted, the amount of damage that would have avoided more than paid off for the small amount of gains missed as the market cycle peaked.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>This quad-panel chart below shows the 4-previous periods where 50% of 10-different yield curves were inverted. I have drawn a horizontal red dashed line from the first point where 50% of the 10-yield curves we track inverted. I have also denoted the point where you should have sold and the subsequent low.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-SP500-032919_0.png?itok=CATP6EtC\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-SP500-032919_0.png?itok=CATP6EtC\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-SP500-032919_0.png?itok=jn9rrXW2 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-SP500-032919_0.png?itok=jn9rrXW2 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-SP500-032919_0.png?itok=jn9rrXW2 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-SP500-032919_0.png?itok=jn9rrXW2 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-SP500-032919_0.png?itok=jn9rrXW2 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-SP500-032919_0.png?itok=CATP6EtC 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"f3d420b2-04d5-4a10-a6a8-0ea8eab9076d\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"266\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo52A3/20052690159-0/original.png#20052690159\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>As you can see, in every case, the market did rally a bit after the initial reversion. However, had you reduced your equity-related risk, not only did you bypass a lot of market volatility \x3cem>(which would have led to investor mistakes)\x3c/em> but ended up better off than those trying to \x3cem>“ride it out.”\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>That’s just history\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>Oh, as we noted last week, we just hit the 80% mark of inversions on the 10-spreads we track. \x3cem>(Historically, there has never been a point where 80% of yield curves were inverted that a recession wasn’t pending.)\x3c/em>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3ca data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"/s3/files/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-081519.png?itok=14oFflAc\" data-link-option=\"0\" href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-081519.png?itok=14oFflAc\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cpicture>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3cvideo style=\"display: none;\">\x3c![endif]-->\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-081519.png?itok=Px1E_SCD 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1280px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-081519.png?itok=Px1E_SCD 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 480px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-081519.png?itok=Px1E_SCD 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-081519.png?itok=Px1E_SCD 2x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 1024px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-081519.png?itok=Px1E_SCD 1x\" media=\"all and (min-width: 768px)\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3csource srcset=\"https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/Yield-Curve-Inversions-081519.png?itok=14oFflAc 1x\" type=\"image/png\">\x3c/source>\x3c!--[if IE 9]>\x3c/video>\x3c![endif]-->\x3cimg data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"1fa4171d-5886-413a-8c52-49b7183c6c1d\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" height=\"309\" width=\"500\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo9E63/20498835857-0/original.png#20498835857\" alt=\"\" typeof=\"foaf:Image\" />\x3c/picture>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>This time is unlikely to be different.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>More importantly, with economic growth running at less than 1/2 the rate of the previous two periods, it will take less than half the amount of time for the economy to slip into recession. \x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>The yield curve is sending a message which shouldn’t be ignored, and it is a good bet that \x3cem>“risk-based”\x3c/em>investors will act sooner rather than later. Of course, it is simply the contraction in liquidity which causes the decline that will eventually exacerbate the economic contraction.\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>While it is unwise to use the \x3cem>“yield curve”\x3c/em> as a \x3cem>“market timing”\x3c/em> tool, it is just as unwise to completely dismiss the message it is currently sending.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\n\n\x3cp>Moreover, I am certainly \x3cstrong>NOT\x3c/strong> suggesting you sell everything and go to cash today. \x3cstrong>However, history is pretty clear that you will likely not miss much if you did.\x3c/strong>\x3c/p>\x3cimg src=\"//mtdata.ru/u7/photo97FE/20944981555-0/original.gif#20944981555\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" alt=\"\" />","comments_count":0,"marks_count":0,"likes":{"count":0,"user_likes":0,"can_like":0,"marks_pluses":0,"marks_minuses":0,"user_like_attr":null,"like_attr_ids":[]},"fame_actions_positive_count":0,"fame_actions_negative_count":0,"fame_actions":[],"url":"https://zerohedge.mirtesen.ru/blog/43520845991","tags":["volatility"],"date":1566069000,"canEdit":false,"foreignPollId":null,"attachments":[{"photo":{"id":20706597424,"photo_original":"https://mtdata.ru/u7/photo19F8/20706597424-0/original.png","width":990,"height":438}}],"group":{"display_name":"Zero Hedge","url":"https://zerohedge.mirtesen.ru","photo_original":null,"id":30179668738,"canViewBlogPostCreator":false,"showSubscribersAmount":true,"is_subscribed":false,"is_member":false,"is_owner":false,"is_staff":false,"created":1425661540867},"canonical_url":"http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/SOe4pdGEstc/pay-attention-message-yield-curve-sending","topic":"finance","title":"Pay Attention To The Message The Yield Curve Is Sending","preview_text":"Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, \nDo you love #volatility yet?  \n\nLast week the market swung wildly back on forth on “trade talks,” “tariff relief,” inverted yield curves, and recession fears to finish the week on “hopes” banks will rescue the markets once again. \n\n\x3c!--[if","post_type":"post","formattedDates":{"iso":"2019-08-17T19:10:00.000Z","ver1":"17 августа, 22:10","ver2":"17.08.2019 в 22:10","ver3":"17 авг., 22:10"},"images":[{"main":true,"url":"https://mtdata.ru/u7/photo19F8/20706597424-0/original.png","width":990,"height":438}],"videos":[],"shared_post":null,"mentionedPersons":null},{"id":43537273894,"from_id":201298121,"from":{"id":201298121,"display_name":"Forex Alchemy","url":"https://mirtesen.ru/people/201298121","photo_original":null,"isAuthenticAccount":false,"sex":1},"owner_id":-30940754977,"text":"\x3cp>\x3cimg width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u5/photoCD1C/20476736338-0/original.jpg#20476736338\" alt=\"financial-crisis\" style=\"float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;\" />After a few impressive years on the global markets, it seems like things may be slowing down. In turn, this has resulted in experts speculating about where we are headed with most of them agreeing that extensive negative trends are to be expected. BullMarketz recently pointed out that there are two ...\x3c/p>\n\x3cp>Continue reading \x3ca rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http://www.forexalchemy.com/is-the-next-financial-crisis-around-the-corner\" target=\"_blank\">Is the Next Financial Crisis Around the Corner?\x3c/a> on \x3ca rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http://www.forexalchemy.com\" target=\"_blank\">Forex Alchemy\x3c/a>.\x3c/p>","comments_count":0,"marks_count":0,"likes":{"count":0,"user_likes":0,"can_like":0,"marks_pluses":0,"marks_minuses":0,"user_like_attr":null,"like_attr_ids":[]},"fame_actions_positive_count":0,"fame_actions_negative_count":0,"fame_actions":[],"url":"https://forexalchemy.mirtesen.ru/blog/43537273894","tags":["Psychology","risk management","Financial Crisis","Volatility"],"date":1543386788,"canEdit":false,"foreignPollId":null,"attachments":[{"photo":{"id":20476736338,"photo_original":"https://mtdata.ru/u5/photoCD1C/20476736338-0/original.jpg","width":150,"height":150}}],"group":{"display_name":"Forex Alchemy","url":"https://forexalchemy.mirtesen.ru","photo_original":null,"id":30940754977,"canViewBlogPostCreator":false,"showSubscribersAmount":true,"is_subscribed":false,"is_member":false,"is_owner":false,"is_staff":false,"created":1426262021591},"canonical_url":"http://www.forexalchemy.com/is-the-next-financial-crisis-around-the-corner","topic":null,"title":"Is the Next Financial Crisis Around the Corner?","preview_text":"After a few impressive years on the global markets, it seems like things may be slowing down. In turn, this has resulted in experts speculating about where we are headed with most of them agreeing that extensive negative trends are to be expected. BullMarketz recently pointed out that there are two","post_type":"post","formattedDates":{"iso":"2018-11-28T06:33:08.000Z","ver1":"28 ноября, 9:33","ver2":"28.11.2018 в 9:33","ver3":"28 нояб., 9:33"},"images":[{"main":true,"url":"https://mtdata.ru/u5/photoCD1C/20476736338-0/original.jpg","width":150,"height":150}],"videos":[],"shared_post":null,"mentionedPersons":null},{"id":43662926486,"from_id":201298121,"from":{"id":201298121,"display_name":"Forex Alchemy","url":"https://mirtesen.ru/people/201298121","photo_original":null,"isAuthenticAccount":false,"sex":1},"owner_id":-30940754977,"text":"\x3cp>\x3cimg width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u25/photo4EB2/20772736957-0/original.jpg#20772736957\" alt=\"volatility fx market\" style=\"float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;\" />If you are deciding to invest in Forex, you need to know that the volatility is a risk for the traders. It is also how they can make a profit but the risks of losing money are higher than making a profit. The normal trading with expected volatility and the volatile markets. Example of expected volat...\x3c/p>\n\x3cp>Continue reading \x3ca rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http://www.forexalchemy.com/tips-for-trading-volatile-markets\" target=\"_blank\">Tips For Trading Volatile Markets\x3c/a> on \x3ca rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http://www.forexalchemy.com\" target=\"_blank\">Forex Alchemy\x3c/a>.\x3c/p>","comments_count":0,"marks_count":0,"likes":{"count":0,"user_likes":0,"can_like":0,"marks_pluses":0,"marks_minuses":0,"user_like_attr":null,"like_attr_ids":[]},"fame_actions_positive_count":0,"fame_actions_negative_count":0,"fame_actions":[],"url":"https://forexalchemy.mirtesen.ru/blog/43662926486","tags":["Basics","Education","Market Volatility","Online Trading","Volatility"],"date":1540896712,"canEdit":false,"foreignPollId":null,"attachments":[{"photo":{"id":20772736957,"photo_original":"https://mtdata.ru/u25/photo4EB2/20772736957-0/original.jpg","width":150,"height":150}}],"group":{"display_name":"Forex Alchemy","url":"https://forexalchemy.mirtesen.ru","photo_original":null,"id":30940754977,"canViewBlogPostCreator":false,"showSubscribersAmount":true,"is_subscribed":false,"is_member":false,"is_owner":false,"is_staff":false,"created":1426262021591},"canonical_url":"http://www.forexalchemy.com/tips-for-trading-volatile-markets","topic":"finance","title":"Tips For Trading Volatile Markets","preview_text":"If you are deciding to invest in Forex, you need to know that the volatility is a risk for the traders. It is also how they can make a profit but the risks of losing money are higher than making a profit. The normal trading with expected volatility and the volatile markets. Example of expected","post_type":"post","formattedDates":{"iso":"2018-10-30T10:51:52.000Z","ver1":"30 октября, 13:51","ver2":"30.10.2018 в 13:51","ver3":"30 окт., 13:51"},"images":[{"main":true,"url":"https://mtdata.ru/u25/photo4EB2/20772736957-0/original.jpg","width":150,"height":150}],"videos":[],"shared_post":null,"mentionedPersons":null},{"id":43879403050,"from_id":201298121,"from":{"id":201298121,"display_name":"Forex Alchemy","url":"https://mirtesen.ru/people/201298121","photo_original":null,"isAuthenticAccount":false,"sex":1},"owner_id":-30940754977,"text":"\x3cp>\x3cimg width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u9/photo1DC1/20227850393-0/original.jpg#20227850393\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"volatility fx market\" style=\"float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;\">James Hughes, Chief Market Analyst, AxiTrader, comments: Yesterday… “It’s more records for the Dow Jones, but this time on the other side. Shares on Wall Street have plunged lower during the US session with the Dow Jones falling by 1,175 points, a record one day fall for the index....\x3c/p>\n\x3cp>Continue reading \x3ca rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http://www.forexalchemy.com/dow-jones-best-bitcoin-impression-europe-follows-suit\" target=\"_blank\">The Dow Jones Does Its Best Bitcoin Impression, Europe Follows Suit\x3c/a> on \x3ca rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http://www.forexalchemy.com\" target=\"_blank\">Forex Alchemy\x3c/a>.\x3c/p>","comments_count":0,"marks_count":0,"likes":{"count":0,"user_likes":0,"can_like":0,"marks_pluses":0,"marks_minuses":0,"user_like_attr":null,"like_attr_ids":[]},"fame_actions_positive_count":0,"fame_actions_negative_count":0,"fame_actions":[],"url":"https://forexalchemy.mirtesen.ru/blog/43879403050","tags":["DOW","Bitcoin","Risk","Analysis","Volatility"],"date":1517911209,"canEdit":false,"foreignPollId":null,"attachments":[{"photo":{"id":20227850393,"photo_original":"https://mtdata.ru/u9/photo1DC1/20227850393-0/original.jpg","width":150,"height":150}}],"group":{"display_name":"Forex Alchemy","url":"https://forexalchemy.mirtesen.ru","photo_original":null,"id":30940754977,"canViewBlogPostCreator":false,"showSubscribersAmount":true,"is_subscribed":false,"is_member":false,"is_owner":false,"is_staff":false,"created":1426262021591},"canonical_url":"http://www.forexalchemy.com/dow-jones-best-bitcoin-impression-europe-follows-suit","topic":null,"title":"The Dow Jones Does Its Best Bitcoin Impression, Europe Follows Suit","preview_text":"James Hughes, Chief Market Analyst, AxiTrader, comments: Yesterday… “It’s more records for the Dow Jones, but this time on the other side. Shares on Wall Street have plunged lower during the US session with the Dow Jones falling by 1,175 points, a record one day fall for the index.... Continue","post_type":"post","formattedDates":{"iso":"2018-02-06T10:00:09.000Z","ver1":"6 февраля, 13:00","ver2":"06.02.2018 в 13:00","ver3":"6 февр., 13:00"},"images":[{"main":true,"url":"https://mtdata.ru/u9/photo1DC1/20227850393-0/original.jpg","width":150,"height":150}],"videos":[],"shared_post":null,"mentionedPersons":null},{"id":43181860905,"from_id":334605940,"from":{"id":334605940,"display_name":"Marcus Campbell","url":"https://mirtesen.ru/people/334605940","photo_original":"https://mtdata.ru/u4/photo6F84/20958686078-0/original.jpeg","isAuthenticAccount":false,"sex":2},"owner_id":-30179668738,"text":"\x3cp>\x3ca href=\"http://datatrekresearch.com/\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cem>By Nicholas Colas via DataTrekResearch.com,\x3c/em>\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\x3cp>When you see something titled “Bitcoin 2018 Predictions”, you are probably most interested in just one thing: “Where will it go?” So let’s start there, but then add some other observations on a variety of topics.\x3c/p>\n\x3ch3>\x3cu>#1: We expect bitcoin will trade for between $6,470 and $21,600.\x3c/u>\x3c/h3>\n\x3cp>\x3ca href=\"http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/12/26/20171227_BTC1.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">\x3cimg alt=\"\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u5/photo16FB/20695362459-0/original.jpg#20695362459\" style=\"width: 600px; height: 323px;\">\x3c/a>\x3c/p>\n\x3cp>Here’s how we get there:\x3c/p>\n\x3cul>\n\x3cli>\n\x3cstrong>Bitcoin’s primary “real” use case right now is personal asset protection. \x3c/strong>Yes, that includes money laundering and tax evasion. But it also incorporates the legitimate desire of honest people living in countries with less-than-exemplary rules of law to shield some of their assets.\x3c/li>\n\x3cli>At the moment, the primary instrument used globally for these purposes is the $100 bill. Yes, the European Central Bank also issues high denomination notes. But the gold standard of paper currency is the American C-Note. (Oxymoron intended).\x3c/li>\n\x3cli>While bitcoin doesn’t have the backing of the US government, \x3cstrong>you can’t forge a bitcoin\x3c/strong> (and there are likely as many fake $100s in circulation as real ones). Plus, you don’t need a locked aluminum case and a handcuff to transport it. So we’ll call it a draw.\x3c/li>\n\x3cli>There are $1.1 trillion of legitimate $100 bills in circulation, and by the Federal Reserve’s estimate some 80% live offshore.\x3c/li>\n\x3cli>\n\x3cstrong>If bitcoin were worth 10% of the $100s in circulation, its value would be $6,470.\x3c/strong> The math: $110 billion divided by 17 million bitcoins equals $6,470.\x3c/li>\n\x3cli>\n\x3cstrong>If bitcoin were worth 33% of all the $100s in circulation, it value would be $21,600. \x3c/strong>Same math as prior point. Could bitcoin get to 50% of the value of all $100s? Possibly, but that level of adoption likely requires more time.\x3c/li>\n\x3c/ul>\x3cp>\x3cstrong>At the average of the high and low, we get to $14,035.\x3c/strong> That’s not far off the current trading price, which gives us comfort we’re on the right track with our valuation. The only way it goes substantially higher is if/when someone comes up with a large-scale business that uses bitcoin. That may come in 2018. But for now that scalable use case is asset protection, so that’s how we value bitcoin today.\x3c/p>\n\x3cp>\x3cstrong>Bottom line: bitcoin can rally to $22,000 and still be reasonably priced, or plummet to $6,500 and also be correctly valued.\x3c/strong> We expect to see bitcoin trade for both prices in 2018.\x3c/p>\n\x3ch3>\x3cu>#2 Bitcoin will lose market share to other crypto currencies in 2018.\x3c/u>\x3c/h3>\n\x3cp>There is essentially a “Civil war” in crypto currency land between competing offerings. That wasn’t really the case until Q4 2017, but we expect more strife next year. The reason: bitcoin is still about 44% of total crypto currency market cap. Backers of other crypto currencies have an outsized incentive to encourage bitcoin holders to switch.\x3c/p>\n\x3ch3>\x3cu>#3 Many major US brokerage firms and asset manager will announce plans to open a crypto desk.\x3c/u>\x3c/h3>\n\x3cp>Early adopters of bitcoin and other crypto currencies are an untapped source of profitable new clients for high net worth brokers and asset managers. But in order to access that wealth, these firms will have to offer an exchange mechanism to sell the underlying and diversify these clients’ holdings.\x3c/p>\n\x3ch3>\x3cu>#4 There will be at least 4 crashes of 40% or more.\x3c/u>\x3c/h3>\n\x3cp>Bitcoin and crypto currency are hard to value and their economic utility relies on use cases that are not yet built. Of course the volatility we’ve seen will continue.\x3c/p>\n\x3ch3>\x3cu>#5 Coinbase will improve operational quality ahead of an IPO, helping crypto currency adoption rates.\x3c/u>\x3c/h3>\n\x3cp>Coinbase (a popular wallet app) closed a Series D round in August of this year. In total, they have raised $225 million and that last round gave them a $1.6 billion valuation. Given the dearth of “Real” crypto currency plays in US equity markets, we expect the company could do an IPO in 2018 at a $5 billion valuation or greater. And since it is VC funded, we expect many investors will be looking for exit sooner rather than later.\x3c/p>\n\x3cp>The reason why this matters: Coinbase needs to improve its customer experience a lot, and quickly. The system did not work well during the recent bout of volatility. But when it does improve (and it will, if it wants to go public), more investors will feel comfortable buying crypto currencies.\x3c/p>\n\n\n\x3cdiv class=\"field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser\">\n \x3cdiv class=\"field-items\">\n \x3cdiv class=\"field-item odd\">\n \x3cimg class=\"imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser\" width=\"933\" height=\"502\" alt=\"\" src=\"//mtdata.ru/u5/photo92B9/20810726704-0/original.jpg#20810726704\">\n\x3c/div>\n \x3c/div>\n\x3c/div>\x3cimg src=\"//mtdata.ru/u5/photo6D1A/20033799553-0/original.gif#20033799553\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" alt=\"\">","comments_count":0,"marks_count":0,"likes":{"count":0,"user_likes":0,"can_like":0,"marks_pluses":0,"marks_minuses":0,"user_like_attr":null,"like_attr_ids":[]},"fame_actions_positive_count":0,"fame_actions_negative_count":0,"fame_actions":[],"url":"https://zerohedge.mirtesen.ru/blog/43181860905","tags":["Alternative currencies","Economics of bitcoin","Federal Reserve","European Central Bank","Bitcoin","Currency","Equity Markets","Money","Finance","US Federal Reserve","Market Share","Blockchains","Business","Financial technology","Cryptocurrencies","US government","Coinbase","Volatility"],"date":1514398846,"canEdit":false,"foreignPollId":null,"attachments":[{"photo":{"id":20695362459,"photo_original":"https://mtdata.ru/u5/photo16FB/20695362459-0/original.jpg","width":600,"height":323}}],"group":{"display_name":"Zero Hedge","url":"https://zerohedge.mirtesen.ru","photo_original":null,"id":30179668738,"canViewBlogPostCreator":false,"showSubscribersAmount":true,"is_subscribed":false,"is_member":false,"is_owner":false,"is_staff":false,"created":1425661540867},"canonical_url":"http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/fcpe0itnP48/bitcoin-2018-there-will-be-least-4-crashes-40-or-more","topic":"finance","title":"Bitcoin In 2018: \"There Will Be At Least 4 Crashes Of 40% Or More\"","preview_text":"By Nicholas Colas via DataTrekResearch.com, When you see something titled “Bitcoin 2018 Predictions”, you are probably most interested in just one thing: “Where will it go?” So let’s start there, but then add some other observations on a variety of topics. \n#1: We expect bitcoin will trade for","post_type":"post","formattedDates":{"iso":"2017-12-27T18:20:46.000Z","ver1":"27 декабря, 21:20","ver2":"27.12.2017 в 21:20","ver3":"27 дек., 21:20"},"images":[{"main":true,"url":"https://mtdata.ru/u5/photo16FB/20695362459-0/original.jpg","width":600,"height":323}],"videos":[],"shared_post":null,"mentionedPersons":null}],"tag":"Volatility","tagId":80989876814,"hasMore":true,"offset":1,"isGeo":false},"reasonsForShowing":{},"channelMain":{"items":[],"nextOffset":0,"hasMoreItems":true,"currentUserPostId":null,"page":0},"richPostEditor":{"id":null,"title":"","text":"","channel":null,"canSelectChannel":false,"canSubmit":false},"indexChannel":{"items":[],"nextOffset":0,"hasMoreItems":true},"videoList":{},"videoOne":{},"videoRecommendations":{},"channelActions":{},"testDraftJs":{},"channelEditor":{"tab":"info","key":0,"isOpen":false,"isReady":true,"inProcess":false,"channelId":null,"isDirty":false,"header":{"title":"","avatar":null},"info":{"id":null,"name":"","title":"","description":"","isNameAvailable":true,"errors":{}},"content":{"tags":[],"tagSuggestions":[],"geoTags":[],"geoTagSuggestions":[]},"telegramEdit":{"importKey":null,"name":"","tags":[],"tagSuggestions":[],"errors":{}},"telegramList":{"imports":[]}},"channelCoverEditor":{"isOpen":false,"mode":"add","imageSaved":false},"channelAvatarEditor":{"isOpen":false},"myChannels":{"channels":[],"subscriptions":{"items":[],"nextOffset":0,"hasMore":true,"subscriptionsNum":0}},"channelHeaderTags":{"isOpen":false,"searchResults":[],"geoTags":[],"tags":[],"searchInProccess":false,"geoPosition":null,"headerTags":[]},"searchResults":{"query":"","activeTab":"posts","isLoading":false,"posts":{"results":[],"page":0,"hasMore":true},"geo":{"results":[],"page":0,"hasMore":true},"channels":{"results":[],"page":0,"hasMore":true}}}